Temporal Accuracy in Urban Growth Forecasting: A Study Using the SLEUTH Model

This study attempts to establish multi-temporal accuracy of the predicted maps produced by a land use change simulation model over time. Validation of the forecasted results is an essential part of predictive modeling and it becomes even more important when the models are used for decision making purposes. The present study uses a popular land use change model called SLEUTH to investigate the temporal trend of accuracy of the predicted maps. The study first investigates the trend of accuracy of the predicted maps from the immediate future to the distant future. Secondly, it investigates the impact of the prediction date range on the accuracy of the predicted maps. The objectives are tested for the city of Gorizia (Italy) using three sets of map comparison techniques, Kappa coefficients, Kappa Simulation and quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement. Results show that, in addition to the model’s performance, the decrease in the accuracy of the predicted maps is dependent on factors such as urban history, uncertainty of input data and accuracy of reference maps.